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By M. Adil Javed
Pakistan, due to its strategic location has
remained the centre of attention throughout its chequered history. Currently,
it walks a tightrope between two major powers including United States and the
People’s Republic of China. While considering Chinese Belt and Road Initiative
(BRI), particularly its sub-section, China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC),
this tightrope act becomes even more delicate.
In global political and economic scenario, China
and United States are considered rival due to historical roots of their
different political and economic ideologies and most importantly, conflicting
Chinese ambitions to take the charge of global economic landscape. To achieve
this goal, China is reviving its old Silk Routes in shape of BRI for enhancing its trade and
economy through regional connectivity while CPEC being an important part of this project.
CPEC is a massive Chinese infrastructure
development project in Pakistan launched in April 2015. CPEC is a regional
connectivity project spans over 3,000 km. It aims to connect China's western
Xinjiang province to Pakistan's Gwadar port on the Arabian Sea by touching
almost all the provinces of Pakistan. The project envisions a network of
highways, railways, energy plants, and special economic zones (SEZ).
CPEC is a game changer for Pakistan as it brings Chinese investments of about $64 billion and promises significant
economic benefits like boosting infrastructure, creating jobs, and enhancing
energy security.
However, this partnership with China proves complex
for Pakistan as it becomes an apple of discord for the United States. The US, a
long-standing ally, has expressed concerns about CPEC. The situation has
created a need for a delicate balancing act for Pakistan's foreign policy.
Challenges of Balancing Relations with United States
Pakistan's pursuit of economic benefits through CPEC comes face-to-face with the concerns of its long-standing ally, the United States. Here's a breakdown of the key issues creating this balancing act:
A. US Concerns about CPEC:
According to the article published in US-China
Perception Monitor, Former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo stated regarding
CPEC that any bailout package from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) should
not be used to service the CPEC loans. He further said, “Make no mistake, we
will be watching what the IMF does.”
The article further includes that in 2019, Alice
Wells, the then Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for South and
Central Asia, in her speech at the Washington-based Wilson Center criticized
Chinese CPEC investments in Pakistan. She raised questions during the speech
including the concerns over the costs, debt, transparency, and jobs associated
with CPEC, and warned of consequences for Pakistan’s national sovereignty.
In a more precise manner, we can analyse US
concerns under the following points:
Lack of Transparency: The United States questions the unclear nature of CPEC financing
and contracts under the CPEC. These concerns further include a lack of open
bidding processes and potential for corruption, which could undermine the
project's long-term viability.
Unsustainable Debt Burden: CPEC could saddle Pakistan with massive debt that it may struggle to
repay. This could limit Pakistan's economic autonomy and potentially increase
China's leverage and ultimately reduce the US influence in the country.
Geopolitical Competition: CPEC is a central component of China's Belt and Road Initiative
(BRI), a broader strategy to expand China's economic and political influence
directly to the Arabia Sea and Persian Gulf. The US views BRI, and by extension
CPEC, as a challenge to its own global leadership.
B. Potential Consequences for Pakistan:
United States is very much concerned about the
development of China and Russia. It has established certain alliances like
AUKUS and Quad in the region. US is building a strategic partnership with India
in this regard. Its stance on Taiwan issue is hardened in recent past. So,
there are certain risks for Pakistan if it fails to address US concerns:
Strained Relations: Ignoring US apprehensions in the region could lead to a
deterioration in the US-Pakistan relationship. This could potentially impact
areas of cooperation like counterterrorism and regional security.
Reduced US Investment: The US might be less inclined to offer alternative economic
development or infrastructure projects if it feels side-lined by CPEC in
Pakistan. According to United States Trade Representative, U.S.
foreign direct investment (FDI) in Pakistan was $127 million in 2022, that was
59.3 percent decreased from 2021. While Pakistan's FDI in the United States was
$144 million in 2022, down 14.3 percent from 2021.
Limited Strategic Options: Overdependence on China will create opportunities but could also
restrict Pakistan's ability to navigate the complex geopolitical landscape of
the region where the United States is still enjoying greater sphere of
influence even after the emergence of China and Russia.
Strategies for Managing the Balancing Act
Pakistan finds itself in a precarious position as
there is an immense pressure of the problems being faced by the country to
navigate the waters between China and the US. On one side, Chinese investment
in Pakistan could prove as the game changer while on the other side it is
dependant on the United States for regional security and cooperation.
Similarly, US has a great influence in IMF where Pakistan is seeking help to
rebuild its defaulting economy. Here are some potential strategies for both
sides to manage this delicate situation:
Economic Benefits for All: Suez Canal is greatest example of regional connectivity through a
corridor that has helped greatly to the United States and its allies in the
Europe. Here, Pakistan can emphasize the potential of CPEC to benefit the
entire region by boosting economic and trade activity. This could incentivize
the US to view CPEC not as a game of relative gains, but from the standpoint of
an opportunity for broader regional development.
Transparency is Key: There is need to build trust and confidence in the project's
long-term sustainability. So, Pakistan can address US concerns about
transparency by ensuring open bidding processes. Furthermore, realizing US
about adherence to international financial standards, and independent audits of
CPEC projects.
Diversifying Partnerships: Along economic needs, Pakistan also requires fulfilling its needs
relating to regional security which are indispensable without US help. So, it
should maintain a strong strategic partnership with the US in areas outside of
CPEC, such as counterterrorism and regional security.
Alternative Investment Options: The US can be convinced to offer alternative economic development
and infrastructure projects in Pakistan like it is offering India in multiple
fields. Pakistan needs to include US as a viable partner for Pakistan's
economic growth. Like, if China can open ways for Pakistan in BRI and BRICS, US
can also help Pakistan for its matters with IMF as well as opening trade and
investment avenues with the countries in G7 and G20.
Shared Security Concerns: Pakistan's cooperation remains crucial for US security interests
in the region particularly in context of Afghanistan and Iran. Pakistan can
play its role with the United States on areas of mutual interest, particularly
counter-terrorism and regional stability.
Understanding Pakistan's Needs: Pakistan does not enjoy cordial relations with India from its
inception. Afghanistan have proved to be an irritant for the border security
and terrorism. Pakistan is facing challenges both at internal and external levels.
So, recognizing Pakistan's need for a diversified partnership with US and its
willingness to work within the realities of Pakistan's geopolitical situation
will be best way to foster trust and strengthens the long-term relationship.
Conclusion
The complexities between Pakistan, the US, and China surrounding CPEC necessitates open communication and strategic cooperation on all sides. Transparency in financing of projects, a focus on regional economic development, and recognition of Pakistan's need for a diversified partnership are all crucial for achieving a win-win situation. Pakistan, by working together, with the US, and China can unlock the potential of CPEC to foster regional economic growth and stability.
The writer has done MS in Politics and International Relations
Also Read: BRICS Pakistan: An Analysis
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